Amid mounting global tensions and a shifting geopolitical landscape, the third Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) session for the 2026 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is taking place in New York from 28 April to 9 May. This meeting comes at a critical time, as the foundations of the non-proliferation regime face renewed pressure.
Federica Dall’Arche, VCDNP Senior Research Associate, addresses these challenges in her new article, titled "Transatlantic Rifts and a New Arms Race: Nuclear Non-Proliferation at Risk", published in the latest issue of Formiche. The article offers an in-depth assessment of how renewed security anxieties – especially in Europe and Asia – are threatening core disarmament commitments enshrined in Article VI of the NPT.
Dall’Arche discusses the weakening of transatlantic consensus, the growing appeal of nuclear deterrence strategies in both Europe and Northeast Asia, and the strategic uncertainty surrounding US security guarantees. The article explores a range of developments with far-reaching implications for the NPT regime, including calls for a European nuclear deterrent, the evolving South Korean internal debate over acquiring a national nuclear arsenal, the fragile state of the Iran nuclear deal, and Saudi Arabia’s ambitions in the nuclear domain. These trends signal a weakening of the norm against proliferation – raising the spectre of a return to a multipolar nuclear competition.
Dall’Arche’s piece appears in a special edition of Formiche that features contributions from a distinguished group of international thinkers and policy-makers, including Joseph S. Nye, Giampiero Massolo, Francesca Giovannini, James M. Acton, Sebastian Brixey-Williams, Emmanuelle Maitre, Paul van Hooft, Qiyang Niu, and others.
The article is available in Italian below.