Appearing on the current affairs talk show “Global Agenda” on the Japanese network NHK Global, VCDNP Senior Fellow Dr. Nikolai Sokov examined the risk of nuclear escalation amidst the war in Ukraine. In the panel discussion with other experts, aired on 6 August 2022, Dr. Sokov stressed the high level of uncertainty about “red lines” on both sides. In this climate, any provocation has the potential to trigger direct, military action between Russian and NATO conventional forces. Such a clash, no matter how small, could quickly escalate to a limited or, in the worst case, large-scale exchange of nuclear weapons.
Dr. Sokov also pointed out that Russia’s references to nuclear weapons early in the war seemed irrational. Threatening nuclear escalation was not a credible measure to stop the West from assisting Ukraine. Instead, this threat likely reflected the insecurity felt by Russian leadership about invading Ukraine.
Other issues discussed by the panel include the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the global non-proliferation regime.
