During June 2013, Dr. Siegfried Hecker, Visiting Distinguished Scientist at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) and director emeritus of Los Alamos National Laboratory, on sabbatical from Stanford University, took part in a series of activities, aimed at passing his extensive knowledge and experience on to the next generation of nuclear scientists and diplomats.
From June 17 to 21, Dr. Hecker participated in the 2013 Science and Technology Conference held by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which took place at the Hofburg Palace in Vienna. On the first day of the Conference, Dr Hecker moderated a panel discussion with Hans Blix (former Director General of the IAEA) and Ellen Tauscher (former US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs). The panelists highlighted the importance of advancing science and technology as part of the global effort for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, and of educating the next generation of scientists to address the new emerging threats posed by proliferation of nuclear weapons. Dr Hecker emphasized the importance of international scientific cooperation in dealing with the spread of nuclear weapons and the role of the verification regime in building and enhancing confidence among states.
The following day, Dr. Hecker welcomed a group of trainees from the Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs to the VCDNP. The discussion covered a range of issues, including the nuclear programs of North Korea and Iran as well as the dangers stemming from the spread of nuclear weapons in these regions. Very motivated and enthusiastic, the trainees also debated the benefits and risks of nuclear energy in Europe as well the current nuclear policy in China and India. They also discussed with Dr. Hecker the challenges the world might face in the future decades, in particular those associated with non-state actors and the role the young generation of scientists and diplomats can play in the field of nonproliferation.
On June 19, Dr. Hecker gave a talk at the Vienna Chapter of the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management titled "One of the Greatest Stories Never Told—Remediating a Proliferation Problem at the Semipalatinsk Test Site." In 1992, after Russia pulled out of the Soviet nuclear test site at Semipalatinsk, Hecker and his colleagues at the Los Alamos National Laboratory became concerned that items and materials that might have been left behind could pose a proliferation or nuclear terrorism problem. Dr. Hecker described how scientists from Kazakhstan, Russia and the United States successfully cooperated to remediate problems at the vast nuclear test site. He especially emphasized the importance of joint trans-border efforts by scientists from different countries working side by side toward the same goal.
At the closing of the CTBTO 2013 Science and Technology Conference, on Friday, June 21, Dr. Hecker participated in a panel moderated by Dr. Patricia Lewis (Research Director for International Security at Chatham House in the United Kingdom). He gave an assessment of the risks and benefits of nuclear testing as seen from the vantage point of a nuclear physicist and a nuclear weapons expert, concluding that the benefits of a ban on nuclear testing and of entry into force of the CTBT far outweigh the risks and called on the United States to ratify the treaty.
On June, 25, Dr. Hecker participated in the event "The Future of Nuclear Weapons: The US, Russia, North Korea and Iran" organized by the Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP), in cooperation with University of Vienna, VCDNP, and the Austrian Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs. In his presentation, Dr Hecker analyzed the risks associated with the continued existence of nuclear weapons.
Within the "triangle" of the United States-Russia-China, he assessed the risk of nuclear use as minimal, but pointed out that the situation might become less stable in case the political system in China evolves into a "nationalistic democracy." He suggested a three-pronged approach to long-term stability in that relationship: reduce Russia's insecurities (by avoiding a showdown over missile defense, encouraging Russia to strengthen its conventional capability (in order to rely less on its nuclear arsenal), and greater involvement of Russia in global threat reduction activities); ratification of the CTBT; and encouraging China to take a greater international nonproliferation and security role.
Dr. Hecker assessed the probability of North Korea and Iran abandoning their nuclear programs in the short term as low, but suggested that in the long-term efforts to alleviate security concerns, increase the costs of nuclear weapons programs to the governments of these countries, and encourage peaceful uses of nuclear energy could play an important role in improving the situation.
Speaking about India and Pakistan, Dr. Hecker noted that these two countries appear poised to repeat the Cold War experience of the United States and the Soviet Union and asked the question, will they be as lucky in avoiding a nuclear conflict? Neither county appears prepared to abandon nuclear weapons short of global nuclear disarmament, but in the meantime much could be gained from several policies: in particular, each should continue to observe its nuclear testing moratorium, India needs to be more sensitive to Pakistan's security concerns while Pakistan needs to behave as a responsible nuclear actor.
According to Dr. Hecker, the greatest threat stems from nuclear terrorism. Among three scenarios—detonation of an improvised or stolen nuclear device, a radiological bomb, or sabotage of nuclear facilities that results in release of radiation—he assessed the first as the most grave, but the least likely while a radiological bomb, a "weapon of mass disruption," appears the most likely. He discussed the challenges of keeping nuclear materials out of hands of terrorists and related issues.
During the panel discussion, Dr Hecker joined other speakers, including Prof. Heinz Gärtner (Academic Director of OIIP), Univ.-Prof. Rüdiger Frank (Head of Department, Professor of East Asian Economy and Society, University of Vienna), and Alexander Kmentt (Director for Disarmament, Arms Control and Nonproliferation of the Federal Ministry for European and International Affairs of Austria), to discuss a range of complex international security issues, such as the future of nuclear deterrence and arms control, the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, and why progress in nuclear disarmament since the end of the Cold War has fallen short of expectations.
Some of the highlights of the 2013 CTBTO Science and Technology Conference can be found at www.ctbto.org/press-centre/highlights/2013/the-science-and-technology-conference-2013/.
