On 19 March 2019, the VCDNP, in cooperation with the Permanent Mission of Japan, hosted a panel discussion on the establishment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction (WMDFZ) in the Middle East. The speakers shared their perspectives on the status of the efforts to establish the zone, challenges to progress on the issue and the implications for the 2020 review cycle of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
In 1995, along with the decision to extend the treaty indefinitely, NPT States Parties adopted a resolution, co-sponsored by Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, calling for the establishment of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. The Action Plan adopted by the 2010 NPT Review Conference requested that the three co-sponsors of the 1995 Resolution, together with the UN Secretary-General, appoint a facilitator and convene a regional conference on the establishment of the zone in 2012. However, the 2012 conference was postponed indefinitely. In 2018, First Committee of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a decision, submitted by the Arab States, which requests the UN Secretary General to convene a regional conference on the establishment of the WMDFZ in the Middle East by the end of 2019. Israel and the United States have expressed their opposition to this initiative as targeted against Israel. The conference is currently scheduled to take place in New York in November 2019.
In light of the First Committee's decision and the approaching 2019 session of the NPT Preparatory Committee meeting, the VCDNP organised a panel discussion with Ambassador Mohamed Samir Koubaa of the League of Arab States, Ambassador David Hall of the United Kingdom, Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov of the Russian Federation and Dr. Hanna Notte of The Shaikh Group.
Ambassador Koubaa began the discussion by reviewing the background and history of the proposals and initiatives to establish a WMDFZ in the Middle East. He emphasised that the Arab States agreed to an indefinite extension of the NPT as part of a package deal that included the resolution on the Middle East and expressed disappointment with the lack of progress in implementing that resolution. Ambassador Koubaa particularly questioned the position of two sponsors of the 1995 resolution who did not support the draft final document of the 2015 NPT Review Conference that would have mandated the convening of a regional conference on the establishment of the zone by March 2016. With regard to the UNGA-mandated 2019 regional conference, Ambassador Koubaa informed that the League of Arab States was beginning to work on proposals for the conference’s agenda and outcome.
Ambassador Hall presented three key points on UK policy towards the WMDFZ in the Middle East. First, as a co-sponsor of the 1995 resolution, he said the UK remained committed to the establishment of the zone. Second, the United Kingdom is prepared to engage in a renewed dialogue on the matter, but such dialogue should be inclusive, balanced and results-oriented. In this regard, Ambassador Hall highlighted the possibility of convening a regional conference based on the 2010 NPT mandate, with all the relevant regional actors agreeing by consensus on the conference agenda and modalities beforehand. Third, he emphasized that the United Kingdom would not support any initiatives that exclude any State in the region. He further noted that the United Kingdom had not taken a final decision regarding its participation in the UNGA-mandated conference in November 2019. Ambassador Hall also called on States in the region to come forward with proposals and ideas on ways to advance progress on the establishment of a WMDFZ in the Middle East.
In his remarks, Ambassador Ulyanov also expressed disappointment with the lack of progress towards the establishment of the WMDFZ in the Middle East and underscored that Russia did not support the postponement of the 2012 conference. Although he commended Israel’s participation in the regional consultations organized by the facilitator of the 2012 conference Ambassador Jaakko Laajava, Ambassador Ulyanov expressed the view that both Israel and the United States lost any interest in including the dialogue on regional security. With regard to the UNGA decision on convening a conference in 2019, he argued that the three NPT depositaries – Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – should attend, along with France and China, as well as international organisations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He further emphasized that the Arab States should maintain the principles of inclusiveness and consensus for the duration of all sessions of the conference.
While the first three speakers focused primarily of the past and current initiatives to establish a process for the negotiation of a WMDFZ in the Middle East, Dr. Notte addressed broader security challenges facing the region. She emphasized that the problem of establishing a WMDFZ in the Middle East cannot be solved in a vacuum, but must rather be approached in the context of the many regional conflicts and deep distrust among various actors. Dr. Notte discussed the demilitarization of Syria’s declared chemical weapons stockpile after the 2013 attack in East Ghouta as a recent example of successful US-Russian cooperation in resolving a security challenge in the Middle East. The success of that venture, Dr. Notte argued, depended on the following factors: (1) Moscow’s perception of the Western States’ readiness to strike Syria, and associated concern about regional escalation and loss of control over the chemical weapons stockpile; (2) the ability of the United States and Russia to leverage past cooperation on WMD-related issues, particularly the experience gained through the Cooperative Threat Reduction programs; (3) interest alignment for the more invested party in the Syria conflict, Russia, since chemical disarmament at no point threatened the survival of the Assad government; and (4) the critical role of personal relationships and eagerness of senior officials on both sides to cooperate even during an unfolding bilateral crisis.
During the discussion with the audience, Israeli Ambassador to the IAEA Merav Zafary-Odiz outlined her government’s position on the WMDFZ in the Middle East and a process that should lead to its creation. She underscored that Israel remained interested in a direct regional dialogue on the issue but would not accept the UN auspices and therefore would not attend the 2019 UNGA-mandated conference. Other attendees posed questions regarding the status of preparations for the 2019 conference, the relationship between that conference and the NPT review process, whether there would be two parallel Middle East WMDFZ-related processes going forward, and what would happen if the 2019 conference fails to make progress. An Egyptian diplomat argued that taking the matter to a different venue and convening a conference under the UN auspices would help alleviate the pressure on the NPT review process. The panellists differed in their perspectives on whether there would be parallel processes and how they would interact, and the discussion demonstrated that more clarity on this issue is needed, particularly in light of next year’s NPT Review Conference.
