In a new paper published by the Toda Peace Institute, VCDNP Non-Resident Senior Fellow John Carlson and former Australian diplomat John Tilemann warn that the global framework for nuclear arms control is unravelling – and that the Asia–Pacific region must assume a greater leadership role in restoring it.
The authors note that while the taboo against nuclear weapons use still holds, complacency has set in. Most of the agreements that once limited nuclear weapons are defunct or expiring. The New START Treaty – the last major US–Russia arms control agreement – will lapse in 2026, leaving the world’s two largest arsenals without verifiable limits. Meanwhile, China’s rapid nuclear expansion and rising regional tensions mean that the epicentre of nuclear risk has shifted eastwards.
They argue that the current situation demands a new, more inclusive approach. Eight nuclear-armed states have strategic interests in the Asia-Pacific and several other states in the region are nuclear-umbrella allies. Traditional bilateral models can no longer meet the scale and complexity of today’s challenges; what is needed is broader regional engagement. The Asia–Pacific itself must take a lead.
The authors call for a renewed focus on risk-reduction measures – including clearer nuclear doctrines, reduced operational readiness, and smaller deployed arsenals – supported by transparency, verification, and sustained diplomatic dialogue. They also identify potential regional leaders: China, whose no-first-use policy offers a foundation for dialogue; Indonesia, with its strong non-aligned credentials; South Korea, which has a vital interest in this subject due to its neighbour; and Japan and Australia, long advocates of nuclear restraint. Regional forums such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the ASEAN Regional Forum, and the East Asia Summit could provide platforms for this cooperation, bridging official and non-official channels.
With the 2026 Review Conference to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons approaching and global arms control at risk of collapse, Carlson and Tilemann urge Asia–Pacific governments to act now. As they conclude, the region “has potential champions of sufficient weight to stem the drift towards nuclear catastrophe, but this requires them to step up and accept the challenge.”
