On 16 May 2014, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) and the Permanent Mission of New Zealand co-hosted a panel discussion entitled "Nuclear Disarmament and the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons," featuring Ambassador Deborah Geels, permanent representative of New Zealand to the international organizations in Vienna, Ambassador Alexander Kmentt, director for disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Tim Caughley, resident senior fellow at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), and Dr. Patricia Lewis, research director of international security at Chatham House. VCDNP Executive Director Elena Sokova moderated the event.
Ambassador Deborah Geels began by outlining New Zealand's engagement in the debates on nuclear disarmament and the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons, a discourse that has gained prominence in recent years, particularly after the 2010 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Review Conference, which noted with "deep concern ... the catastrophic humanitarian consequences that would result from the use of nuclear weapons." New Zealand, she reported, has been at the forefront of these discussions in various multilateral fora, including at the UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, where they delivered the Joint Statement on the Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear Weapons on behalf of 125 member states. New Zealand has additionally signed other joint statements addressing the humanitarian aspects of nuclear weapons at the NPT Preparatory Committee meetings. The debate on humanitarian aspects is gaining momentum, she noted, not only within the NPT review process, but also through two international conferences on the subject, held first in Oslo, Norway in 2013 and then in February of this year in Nayarit, Mexico, with a third conference scheduled for this December in Vienna, Austria. While the recent momentum is relatively new, Ambassador Geels stressed that humanitarian aspects have always been at the core of the arguments for nuclear disarmament, as highlighted in the preamble of the NPT.
Ambassador Alexander Kmentt explained that the humanitarian approach has gained a lot of interest, especially amongst non-nuclear weapon states, non-governmental organizations, international organizations—such as the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement—and within civil society. According to Ambassador Kmentt, after this "long overdue shift in the discourse," states should now focus on the question of how the humanitarian approach can be sustained. In his opinion, different arguments including risks, human error, miscommunication, psychology, as well as technical aspects should be examined. The more the public and decision makers understand the scale and consequences of the impact of nuclear weapons, he states, the clearer facts become, and "the faster a world without nuclear weapons can be reached." According to Ambassador Kmentt, the chairs' statements at both the 2013 Oslo conference and the 2014 Nayarit conference made clear that no adequate response to a nuclear weapon detonation is currently possible. During these conferences, experts discussed possible consequences of nuclear weapon explosions, such as those affecting the climate, food security, food production, precipitation, migration, and many more. A new issue raised at the Nayarit conference was the risk and probability argument, which will be further elaborated at the upcoming conference in Vienna. This conference is intended to be fact-based while facilitating substantive discussion on the matters at hand. Everyone is welcome to participate in the upcoming 8-9 December conference in Vienna.
Dr. Patricia Lewis presented the recent Chatham House report titled "Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy," which analyzes various cases of near nuclear use. The report focuses on the human judgment factor in individuals' decision-making processes. In fact, as Dr. Lewis argues, in many instances, the use of nuclear weapons had been thwarted thanks to the decision taken by a single military officer, often acting contrary to the orders they received. "It was their own judgment about specific situations which prevented the world from further nuclear catastrophe."
Dr. Lewis also described how risk plays an important role in the decision-making process, and how risk can be calculated and explained. She argued that risk is the combination of two factors: probability and consequence. Dr. Lewis also suggested that the nuclear weapon explosion probability is constantly underestimated due to a lack of information. "Since the probability of inadvertent nuclear use is not zero and is higher than had been widely considered, and because the consequences of detonation are so serious, the risk associated with nuclear weapons is high."
Patricia Lewis concluded her presentation by giving some recommendations on how to reduce the risk of a nuclear weapon detonation, such as having sufficient time to analyze a situation, investing in trust and confidence-building measures, refraining from large-scale military exercises during times of heightened tension, involving a wider set of decision makers (i.e. citizens and members of parliament) in military decisions, and creating more awareness on the effects of nuclear weapons.
Ambassador Tim Caughley concluded with an introduction to the ongoing research project at UNIDIR, which concentrates on the actual response capacity of UN agencies in the aftermath of a nuclear weapon detonation. Their research shows that generally there is a very low understanding of how the United Nations would respond to a nuclear weapon explosion. Furthermore, they found that no UN agency has a mandate to coordinate a response in the case of a nuclear weapon detonation. To mitigate the emergency in the aftermath of a nuclear weapon detonation, Ambassador Caughley highly recommended that greater attention should be given within UN bodies to characteristics of nuclear weapon explosions. Additionally, focal points in key agencies as well as working groups should be created, responsibilities should be considered, and mandates of key agencies need to be clarified. Ambassador Caughley emphasized that we always need to be prepared since there may not be one single detonation, but a series of them.
