On 20 March 2015, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) hosted a seminar by the Honorable Gareth Evans, chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (CNNPD) and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Australia, looking at the challenges facing arms control negotiations, in particular the upcoming 2015 Review Conference (RevCon) on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). VCDNP Executive Director Elena Sokova moderated the event.
Professor Evans presented the key findings of the second edition of the report "Nuclear Weapons: The State of Play 2015" by CNNPD. The publication is a comprehensive assessment of states' progress on commitments made at the nuclear security summits and at the 2010 NPT Review Conference, as well as their ongoing efforts to implement the recommendations of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. The report is meant to be used as an advocacy tool for governments and civil society to advance the global nuclear policy debate.
The report focuses its analysis on four main areas: disarmament, non-proliferation, nuclear security, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. It details the key issues and commitments within each category and ranks them on a scale ranging from "No Progress" to "Fully Implemented."
Disarmament
Starting with the topic of disarmament, the report reviews key developments, objectives and strategy, principles, nuclear arms reductions, nuclear doctrines, and force posture adjustments. Overall, Mr. Evans assesses that the positive developments in disarmament are far outweighed by the negatives. The most notable achievement concerning disarmament has been the drastic reduction in the number of nuclear weapons in the global stockpile since the Cold War. He was clear to point out, however, that the growing stockpiles in Asia and the modernization programs in the nuclear weapon states have unfortunately offset these reductions. Among the key areas in need of improvement are transparency and verification, reduction on the reliance of nuclear weapons in states' defense postures, and mobilization of political will to achieve real progress in disarmament. Prof. Evans noted that the momentum created by the humanitarian consequences movement could become a catalyst for next steps, possibly including the negotiation of a comprehensive nuclear weapons convention, a ban on nuclear weapons capability, or the adoption of a no-first-use convention.
Non-Proliferation
In the non-proliferation area, Prof. Evans recognized the growing number of states implementing the Additional Protocol and called for its universalization. He pointed out that little to no progress had been made on issues of noncompliance and enforcement, however, noting that, to date, the outcome of the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program was still uncertain. He warned of the diminished credibility of the Nuclear Suppliers Group as a result of its decision to exempt India from its export control rules, and China's subsequent decision to supply reactors to Pakistan. Minimal and slow progress has been made in the matters of nuclear-weapon-free zones, a fissile material production ban, and the entry-into-force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Nuclear Security
A mixed pattern of progress is also characteristic of nuclear security. One area noted as having made significant progress was national regulations, to which Mr. Evans attributed UN Security Council Resolution 1540 as having played a crucial role. Acknowledging that the nuclear security summits have generated activity in a number of states, including some important advances, he described many of these national-level actions as "rather hollow." According to Evans, one of the main shortfalls of the summits is its failure to establish assurances or international standards for sensitive nuclear materials under military control, which account for 85 percent of all nuclear weapon-useable material. Other report recommendations for improving progress include increasing the budget for the International Atomic Energy Agency's nuclear security work, and setting overarching international standards that include accountability measures for existing commitments.
Nuclear Energy
Speaking on peaceful uses of nuclear energy, Mr. Evans described the peaceful uses agenda as in "reasonably good shape," including improved international cooperation in nuclear safety, particularly after the Fukushima disaster. However, improvements still need to be made in mitigating the proliferation risks of nuclear energy. The report recommends creating multilateral fuel banks and advancing proliferation-resistant technology.
Conclusion
Mr. Evans concluded by describing the global "state of play" of nuclear arms control and disarmament as having moved from "fading optimism" to "outright pessimism." He noted that while progress has been made, it has not been made where it matters most. Hon. Gareth Evans ended with his perspective on the international outlook and expectations for the upcoming NPT RevCon: "It does seem rather more likely that we will be back in the realm of thinking that 2015 is a success if it doesn't collapse in a complete and obvious failure. And I'm afraid that's not where any of us really wanted to be."
