Reassessing Europe’s Nuclear Order: Perspectives for a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone

As part of the Arms Control Negotiation Academy (ACONA), a 12-month high-level professional development program through the Negotiation Task Force (NTF) of Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, VCDNP Visiting Fellow Marianne Nari Fisher published the report "Reassessing Europe’s Nuclear Order: Perspectives for a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone" as a co-author. Excerpts and summarization of the publication includes the following:

Non-nuclear weapon states across Europe are uniquely positioned to contribute to nuclear disarmament activities by evaluating, among others, the prospects and perspectives for nuclear weapons free zones (NWFZ) on the continent and beyond. This paper highlights possible scenarios for establishing a NWFZ in Europe by examining provisions and challenges of existing frameworks under already established treaties in addition to outlining existing obstacles and preconditions.

First, the paper seeks to explore the historical development of the NWFZ concept over recent decades and assess its present relevance in the European context. Second, the paper assesses the status of the European nuclear order. Third, it explores the provisions of existing NWFZ in the Global South and in Central Asia and discusses the lessons learned from the respective negotiation processes and their outcomes. Indeed, there are a number of lessons to be gleaned from existing NWFZ treaties, including the activities or state behavior prohibited under respective zones additionally to the response by NWS to these limitations. In particular, this part outlines conditions regarding (1) the boundary and scope of the zone, (2) transit rights, (3) existing security commitments, (4) negative security guarantees (by states beyond the zone), and (5) the means of verification. Finally, the fourth part explores historical proposals to establish a NWFZ in Europe during and after the Cold War and points to enduring challenges and opportunities. Accounting for the many potential pathways towards a NWFZ, most likely through a gradual approach, diverse threat perceptions and technical limitations will continue to affect the potential success of potential zonal ideas or proposals.

Ahead of the Review Conferences of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the first meeting of States Parties of Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in the coming months, prospects and perspectives for a NWFZ on the continent and beyond are again in the spotlight. If non-nuclear weapon states seek to use NWFZ as an instrument for further nuclear disarmament, thinking through the conditions necessary for the establishment of a NWFZ – even in a limited context – can serve as one instrument to positively address enduing challenges of a changing European security order, while contributing to both the global disarmament and nonproliferation agenda.

Read the full report