On 28 February 2025, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP) launched a new report entitled “Reimagining Risk Reduction: Adapting Cold War Tools to Manage 21st Century Strategic Instability”. The report focuses on the urgent need to modernise nuclear risk reduction measures in light of evolving global security challenges, including emerging technologies and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
The webinar opened with remarks from Elena K. Sokova, VCDNP Executive Director, who highlighted the report's focus on reimagining risk reduction for the 21st Century, considering new military technologies and the current strategic environment. This was followed by Marina Wyss Ross, Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, and Katrin Shimizu, German Federal Foreign Office, who underscored their countries’ commitment to nuclear risk reduction, particularly through multilateral efforts like the Stockholm Initiative for Nuclear Disarmament. They stressed the need for practical cooperation between nuclear-weapon State and non-nuclear-weapon States to uphold the nuclear taboo and prevent escalation.
The report's co-authors, Dr. Nikolai Sokov, Sahil Shah, and David Santoro, presented key findings.
Dr. Sokov, Senior Fellow at the VCDNP, outlined the limitations and strengths of risk reduction measures, emphasising that, while they cannot prevent international conflict, they are crucial for avoiding unintentional crises. He called for upgrading communication links and confidence-building measures as well as fostering a culture of risk reduction.
Mr. Shah, Senior Policy Advisor at the Institute for Security and Technology, expanded on the need to adapt Cold War-era tools to address modern challenges, such as hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence (AI), and dual-capable systems. He advocated for a resilient, results-oriented risk reduction network that includes both multilateral and unilateral measures.
Mr. Santoro, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Pacific Forum, focused on China’s evolving approach to risk reduction, noting its historical scepticism but recent openness to discussions on cross-domain risks, particularly involving AI and cyber technologies. However, he cautioned that concrete progress remains limited, especially given China’s ongoing nuclear modernisation.
Hon. Rose Gottemoeller, Lecturer and Research Fellow at Stanford University, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO, and chief US negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), served as the discussant for this webinar. She highlighted the potential of technologies, such as commercial satellites to enhance verification and monitoring of arms control agreements. She also proposed innovative approaches to communication, including leveraging global satellite networks to create redundancy and resilience in crisis communication.
The webinar concluded with a Q&A session, addressing topics, such as the role of non-nuclear-weapon States, the impact of AI, and the integration of private sector technologies into risk reduction frameworks. Participants agreed on the need for continued dialogue and innovation to address the complex and evolving nature of nuclear risks.
This event underscored the importance of reimagining risk reduction in a rapidly changing world, with a call for renewed political will and international cooperation to prevent nuclear escalation.
This report and event were made possible thanks to the generous support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and the German Federal Foreign Office.