Most of the issues in non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament predate the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the pandemic has compounded some of these longstanding issues and also offered some opportunities for the upcoming Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and beyond. VCDNP Executive Director Elena K. Sokova discussed these issues at the conference organized by Ural Federal University entitled "The NPT at 50: Challenges, Opportunities, and Russian National Interest," which took place on 24-25 November 2020.
Since the last NPT Review Conference in 2015, the divisions between the major nuclear powers, between nuclear-weapon States and non-nuclear-weapon States, and even between non-nuclear-weapon States have only grown deeper. Nuclear arms control suffered the most, as exemplified by the Treaty on the Open Skies and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Extension of New START is still uncertain, through its prospects are much better with the Biden Administration. The withdrawal of US leadership under Trump administration from the multilateral global system is another compounding factor, while Europe still struggles to find a new voice in non-proliferation and arms control issues. Ms. Sokova expressed concern that recent developments, including the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Germany's response to that poisoning, may drive the rift between Europe and Russia deeper, diminishing Europe's role as an interlocutor between Russia and the West.
However, there are reasons for some hope moving forward. Recent US-Russian talks in Vienna on strategic stability look promising, especially as they are conducting the first in-depth consultations in nearly 10 years. Moreover, despite challenges, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran is still in place and Iran continues to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to implement safeguards in the country. This is especially pertinent considering the global pandemic. In fact, the IAEA and its Member States have cooperated extensively to ensure that continuity in safeguards is preserved.
A number of non-proliferation and arms control initiatives, which began before the pandemic, have continued their work since its outbreak. These include the Creating the Environment for Nuclear Disarmament initiative and the Stockholm Initiative. The latter initiative offers a “stepping stones” approach to nuclear disarmament, with a set of concrete and pragmatic measures. According to Ms. Sokova, what is most important right now is to prepare for a constructive NPT Review Conference and to work on improving the communication and the tone in non-proliferation and disarmament debates, especially between the United States and the Russian Federation.
A full recording of Elena Sokova’s remarks is available below.
