On 21 October 2018, US President Donald Trump announced his decision to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. VCDNP Senior Research Associate Ulrich Kühn has been interviewed and published several times on the unfolding crisis. As the situation evolves, Mr. Kühn's analyses can be found on this page.
Bulgarian National Radio, 27 October 2018
Mr. Kühn gave an interview to the Bulgarian National Radio assessing the current crisis around the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. In his remarks, Kühn warned of a pending arms race should the United States withdraw from the treaty. For Europe, such a development would mean a serious deterrioration in security.
Listen to the interview here (in Bulgarian).
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 26 October 2018
In a new article on the situation around the INF, Mr. Kühn has analysed the role of China and the US rational of deterring malevolent Chinese behavior in East Asia. Mr. Kühn surmised that a US change in strategy towards fielding new ground-launched cruise missiles in Asia is possible. The ramification of this would be a further deterioration in strategic stability and a potential arms race with China.
Read the full article here (in German).
Carnegie Europe, 25 October 2018
In a new post in Carnegie Europe's "Strategic Europe" series, Judy Dempsey asked a number of experts whether a nuclear arms race would be avoidable if the United States withdrawals from the INF Treaty. Mr. Kühn answered that a new arms race is indeed avoidable if both sides begin addressing their underlying problems and divergent interests.
Read Mr. Kühn's and other responses here (in English).
Valdai Discussion Club, 23 October 2018
Mr. Kühn spoke with the Valdai Discussion Club about the unfolding crisis around the INF Treaty. During his interview, Mr. Kühn discussed the conceivable impact if the United States and Russian Federation could legally develop new systems of nuclear-armed short- and medium-range missiles. In particular, he emphasised the potential and immediate consequences that these developments could have in Europe and East Asia.
Read the full interview transcript here (in English).
Zeit Online, 22 October 2018
In this op-ed, published by Zeit Online, Mr. Kühn assesses the risks and challenges for Europe and Germany in particular. He argues in the article that the INF's demise would put Europe in jeopardy and increase the existing rifts between European countries that align more closely with the Trump administration and those opposed to ending the Treaty.
Read the full article here (in German).
Deutsche Welle, 22 October 2018
Mr. Kühn gave an interview for the Russian edition of Deutsche Welle. During the interview, Mr. Kühn warned that the collapse of the INF Treaty would be catastrophic for Europe and argued that the US' announcement to withdraw from the agreement is most likely also linked to its strategic calculations pertaining to China.
Watch the interview here (in Russian).
