Over the past year, Russia has torn down the last vestiges of cooperation with the West, most ominously with regard to nuclear arms control and non-proliferation. This is evident in Moscow’s approach to the 10th Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and its recently announced decision to suspend participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). As a result, measures put in place to manage the risk of nuclear confrontation during the Cold War are breaking down, right when they are needed most.
As Russia and the West run out of dossiers to compartmentalise, Moscow will likely confine cooperation to issues that it does not view as central to the confrontation over Ukraine, or those that benefit its war aims — such as the delivery of cross-border aid into Syria. To respond, the West should be prepared to adopt a range of approaches: bargaining with Russia through third parties, overruling it, going around it, hindering it, and clearly exposing its responsibility for undermining nuclear arms control.
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