In a commentary for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, former UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs and VCDNP Senior Fellow, Angela Kane, examines the profound security and diplomatic consequences of the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), warning that its demise marks not just the end of a bilateral agreement but the erosion of a foundational pillar of global nuclear stability.
Kane underscores that New START represented far more than numerical limits on deployed warheads. Its verification mechanisms - including inspections, data exchanges, and compliance measures - provided transparency, predictability, and trust between the United States and Russia, helping to stabilize their relationship even during periods of political tension. With the treaty’s expiration and no successor agreement in place, she cautions about the risks of accelerated nuclear modernization, increased arsenals, and heightened instability at a time of already severe geopolitical strain.
Kane also draws particular attention to Europe’s vulnerable position in this evolving security landscape, underscoring how growing uncertainty about the US as a “reliable protector” has heightened concerns over the continent’s long-term security. As one of the primary beneficiaries of decades of arms control agreements, rather than remaining a passive observer, Europe should, according to Kane, proactively advocate for renewed negotiations, risk-reduction measures, and cooperative mechanisms to help prevent a dangerous slide into unconstrained nuclear competition.
The author, therefore, ultimately calls on European leaders and the broader international community to demonstrate political will and reaffirm their commitment to arms control as an indispensable safeguard for international peace and security.
