What’s Next for the AUKUS Submarine Deal?

In November 2022, VCDNP Research Associate published his reflections in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on the “known knowns” and “known unknowns” about the Australia‑United Kingdom‑United States (AUKUS) partnership, which aims to provide Australia with nuclear‑powered submarines.

In March 2023, the AUKUS partners announced their intention to move forward with the provision of the submarines to Australia, following an 18‑month consultation period.

Following this announcement, Mr. Mayhew published a follow‑on article in the Bulletin to assess what could be next for the AUKUS partnership. In the piece, Mr. Mayhew details what is now known about the submarine deal, namely that the deal would move forward in a phased approach over the next few decades and that Australia has already been in touch with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to begin nuclear safeguards arrangements applicable to the deal.

The article also contains analysis of questions yet to be answered, such as implications for the enrichment of the fuel of the new submarines the AUKUS countries aim to jointly design and build under the partnership, whether a new design is necessary at all, and potential barriers to the deal moving forward. Some of these barriers include the requirement for the United States Congress to approve parts of the submarine deal, the question as to whether or not approval by the IAEA Board of Governors would be required and the reactions in Vienna of Member States opposed to the partnership.

Ultimately, Mr. Mayhew concludes that no precedent for safeguards arrangements for naval nuclear propulsion has yet been set and, as such, “there still isn’t anything to panic about.”