Last to escape, first to disarm? Three scenarios of peace and war on the Korean Peninsula
11 September 2018 •
Briefs and Factsheets, Disarmament, Non-Proliferation, Publications
VCDNP Senior Research Associate Ulrich Kühn's take on possible futures for the Korean nuclear crisis.
Share this:
VCDNP Senior Research Associate Ulrich Kühn has written an article for the Heinrich Böll Foundation, detailing his take is possibilities for the Korean Peninsula.
Ulrich Kühn, Senior Research Associate
"In 2018, political relations on the Korean peninsula are in flux to an unprecedented degree. Back in the summer of 2017, the possibility of a friendly visit of North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un to South Korea would have seemed far-fetched. Even more unrealistic: the prospect of a potential summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump, openly discussing the possibility of a full de-nuclearization of the North and a lasting peace framework for both Koreas. “What is real, and what is illusion?” we might ask ourselves. Is it really possible that Kim Jong-un, after decades of strenuous efforts from North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons, and after being punished by the international community with the most rigid sanctions regime, will simply give up his ‘ultimate insurance’ policy? Would Washington truly be ready to consider withdrawing its forces from the peninsula as a result of a comprehensive peace agreement? And what could all that mean for East Asia and Europe?"
Taking note of the amount of variables still in play, one can only speculate as to what the future will hold for the Korean Peninsula. Bearing this in mind, Kühn actively speculates in this article about three broad possible scenarios, including: (1) diplomacy and deterrence; (2) peace and retreat; and (3) war and turmoil. He analyzes each scenario according to its likelihood and potential impact on the international community and leaves the reader to contemplate them.
The full article, published by the Heinrich Böll Foundation on 4 September 2018, is available here.
In May 2026, States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) will meet for the 11th Review Conference under exceptionally difficult circumstances. In a commentary for the European Leadership Network (ELN), VCDNP Senior Research Associate Federica Dall’Arche reflects on Italy’s perspective on the Treaty and underscores the need for strong European support and leadership in sustaining and reinforcing the NPT framework.
Non-Resident Senior Fellow John Carlson calls for urgent action to reduce the risk of nuclear war and work towards nuclear disarmament in The Korea Times.
To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
