The Eleventh NPT Review Cycle: Is There a Path Forward?

On 26-27 May 2023, the VCDNP and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) convened a high-level diplomatic workshop in Krems, Austria in support of the upcoming first Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for the eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The PrepCom is scheduled to take place on 31 July–11 August, 2023 in Vienna. At the meeting, over 60 senior diplomats and representatives of international and non-governmental organisations discussed main challenges facing the regime at the start of a new review cycle and potential areas for common ground. The workshop also provided an opportunity for the PrepCom Chair-designate Ambassador Jarmo Viinanen to update NPT States Parties on his consultations and hear the views from different state and group representatives on key issues.

Challenges and Opportunities for the Eleventh Review Cycle

Workshop participants discussed the state of the non-proliferation regime in general and priorities for the first NPT Preparatory Committee meeting in particular. There was broad agreement that the NPT remains the central instrument in the international system, but concerns were raised about continued relevance of the review process in light of the failure to adopt a final document in 2015 and 2022.

Debates at the workshop pointed to disagreements among States Parties on the role and value of nuclear deterrence for international security and the prospects for progress on nuclear disarmament. Participants pointed to ways in which Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to have practical implications for the NPT regime, from the safety and security of nuclear facilities to safeguards implementation, to the risk of use of nuclear weapons. Observing how the current crisis has brought engagement among key states to a standstill, several participants highlighted the importance of arms control and multilateral negotiations in times of crises and questioned whether it would be possible to compartmentalize “big issues” to be able to return to dialogue in arms control.

The importance of nuclear risk reduction and its relationship to nuclear disarmament were a subject of a lively debate. Participants highlighted the need to preserve and reinforce the nuclear taboo and discussed what could be done in this regard, recalling the January 2022 NWS statement that repeated the Reagan-Gorbachev dictum that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, as well as the November 2022 G20 statement calling the threat and use of nuclear weapons inadmissible.  While many States see risk reduction as more critical than ever in the current circumstances, there remains apprehension that the risk reduction discussion might replace the debate on how to advance nuclear disarmament. The workshop demonstrated that the issue would remain topical at the PrepCom.

"Vienna Issues" and the Eleventh Review Cycle

One workshop session was devoted to what is known as the “Vienne issues,” including nuclear safeguards, nuclear safety and security, and peaceful uses of nuclear science and technology.

Many participants remarked on the importance of safeguards and indispensable role of the IAEA in their implementation, calling for continued respect and support of the Agency’s technical mandate. Some of the speakers pointed to an opportunity for States parties to cooperate in helping to bring into force outstanding comprehensive safeguards agreements required by the NPT, advancing the universalisation of additional protocols, and the amendment or rescission of outdated small quantities protocols. Remarking on the IAEA’s work in assisting the safety and security of nuclear facilities in Ukraine, the participants agreed that support for these efforts should continue.

Workshop participants discussed the implications of the failure so far to revive the JCPOA, the expansion of Iran’s nuclear program, and unresolved questions with the IAEA over past activities for the regime and the NPT review process. They also debated safeguards challenges posed by the AUKUS partnership’s nuclear submarine plans and implications for the non-proliferation regime more broadly. Recalling that the discussion on advancing the peaceful uses of nuclear science and technologies achieved the most progress at the Tenth Review Conference, participants discussed ways to build on this progress and to link the NPT’s third pillar to sustainable development. As the first PrepCom will take place in Vienna, it was suggested that peaceful uses could be the thematic focus during the meeting and that States Parties could produce a joint statement on peaceful uses and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) at the PrepCom or push for such a statement at the SDG Summit at the United Nations in September 2023.

Strengthening the Review Process

The Tenth Review Conference (RevCon) adopted a decision to establish a Working Group on further strengthening the NPT review process, which should generate recommendations on improving the effectiveness, efficiency, transparency, accountability, coordination and continuity of the review process. At the workshop, the VCDNP presented select recommendations from the recent food-for-thought paper, produced as part of the VCDNP-CNS project in support of the preparations for the Working Group.

While acknowledging that review conference failures are caused by substantive disagreements among States parties, workshop participants agreed the review process could benefit from a number of improvements. The areas and measures highlighted in particular included early appointment of PrepCom chairs and RevCon presidents; more interactive sessions; allocating time for discussion of national reports, especially from the nuclear-weapon states, and finding a practical way for the preparatory process to generate substantive inputs for the Review Conference. The participants also discussed increasing the role of civil society, including through participation in expert panels as part of the formal NPT sessions. Remarking on the substantive value of side events, some of the participants argued these kinds of discussions should be made part of the formal sessions, as many small delegations are unable to attend side events.